North Carolina State (12-6, 1-3) at Florida State (13-7, 2-3): The 'Noles got a two point win at home over Virginia to stay in the at-large hunt. The 'Pack was dealt a three point home loss by Georgia Tech to nearly fall out of it. State's lack of ballhandling has been exacerbated with former starting PG Farnold Degand out of the lineup - their TO rate is an unsightly 24.5% in ACC play. With a porous defense, that won't get it done. There will be an interesting mismatch in this game. North Carolina State's top 5 in minutes go 6-5, 6-8, 6-9, 6-9, 6-10 while Florida State goes 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-9.
Virginia Tech (12-8, 2-3) at Boston College (12-5, 3-1): The Eagles were dealt their first conference loss of the season last weekend at Virginia, but this will be a nice chance for them to bounce back. The Hokies followed back-to-back conference one point conference wins with a pair of double digit losses (Duke and Georgia Tech). Without Jeff Allen in the lineup for the second straight game, expect the Eagles to take this one at home from the young Hokies.
Clemson (15-4, 3-2) at Miami (14-4, 1-3): The Tigers are coming off their 3rd OT game in 5 ACC contests while Miami was ripped at home by North Carolina on Wednesday. Miami's defense has been terrible during their three consecutive conference losses including an incredible 1.35 points per possession against North Carolina. With a solid but not great offense, that defense will need to improve in a major way for the 'Canes to capitalize on their fast start. Trevor Booker has come alive for Clemson, averaging 18.3/8.8 since the New Year and he should lead a potent Tigers offense to victory in what could be close to a must-win game for the Hurricanes.
Georgia Tech at Virginia: It's a matchup of the two worst defenses in the conference on an adjusted basis so expect some scoring. The Cavaliers must win this game, and they should be able to do that if someone other than Sean Singletary assumes a scoring role. On the other hand, the Jackets have played quite well lately, following up a close loss to UNC with wins over Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. Still, with a 2-17 conference road record over the past three years, seeing is believing with Georgia Tech winning road games.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Post Christmas Field of 65
Just a quick look at the field of 65 as it stands now. We know it will change - it would seem the Big East will have trouble getting a record nine bids while the A-10 would be thrilled to get three let alone four.
Big East: Georgetown, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Providence, Villanova, Marquette, Connecticut, Notre Dame
ACC: North Carolina, Miami, Duke, Clemson, Virginia, Florida State, Boston College
Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State
BIG XII: Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma
PAC 10: UCLA, USC, Arizona, Washington State, Stanford
A10: Rhode Island, Xavier, Dayton, Massachusetts
SEC: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas
WCC: Saint Mary's, Gonzaga
MVC: Creighton, Drake
CAA: George Mason
Summit: Oral Roberts
MWC: UNLV
CUSA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WAC: Nevada
MAC: Ohio
America East: UMBC
MEAC: Hampton
NEC: Long Island
SWAC: Alabama State
OVC: Southeast Missouri State
A-SUN: East Tennessee State
MAAC: Siena
Sun Belt: South Alabama
Patriot: Holy Cross
Big West: UC-Santa Barbara
Southern: Davidson
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
Southland: Sam Houston State
Big South: winthrop
Ivy: Brown
Big East: Georgetown, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Providence, Villanova, Marquette, Connecticut, Notre Dame
ACC: North Carolina, Miami, Duke, Clemson, Virginia, Florida State, Boston College
Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State
BIG XII: Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma
PAC 10: UCLA, USC, Arizona, Washington State, Stanford
A10: Rhode Island, Xavier, Dayton, Massachusetts
SEC: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas
WCC: Saint Mary's, Gonzaga
MVC: Creighton, Drake
CAA: George Mason
Summit: Oral Roberts
MWC: UNLV
CUSA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WAC: Nevada
MAC: Ohio
America East: UMBC
MEAC: Hampton
NEC: Long Island
SWAC: Alabama State
OVC: Southeast Missouri State
A-SUN: East Tennessee State
MAAC: Siena
Sun Belt: South Alabama
Patriot: Holy Cross
Big West: UC-Santa Barbara
Southern: Davidson
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
Southland: Sam Houston State
Big South: winthrop
Ivy: Brown
Terps lose yet again...to American?
Things just keep getting worse for the Maryland Terrapins. Nine days after a home loss to Ohio that seemed like rock bottom at the time, the Terrapins were once again defeated in convincing fashion. This time the opposition wasn't even a decent mid major; it was American University of the Patriot League, the school where Gary Williams began his career as a collegiate head coach almost 30 years ago.
The game followed a pattern not unlike that of other recent disappointing losses. The Terps took an early lead, 11-7, before failing to score for a long stretch. This time it was ten minutes - fully one quarter of the game - without a single point. American did little better in putting the ball in the basket, but eventually they did score enough to put themselves up 25-20 at the half.
In the second half, American took control of the game, never relinquishing the lead. In fact, after a Bambale Osby free throw to open the second half cut the Eagles' lead to four, the Terps would get no closer. American led by as many as 12 en route to winning the game 67-59.
American used a zone defense for most of the game, but this loss cannot be blamed on the Terps' lack of outside shooting. Eric Hayes shot 4-8 from deep while Greivis Vasquez was 6-9 from beyond the arc on his way to a career high 28 points, most of them as he furiously tried to lead a second half comeback. But aside from the two starting guards, the rest of the team combined to make four field goals - one each by James Gist, Braxton Dupree, Landon Milbourne, and Dave Neal. The frontcourt was once again beaten badly on the boards on both ends by a smaller and less athletic opposing frontline. Bambale Osby grabbed just 1 rebound in 15 minutes, Dino Gregory snared none in 6 minutes, and James Gist got just 4 in 22 minutes while being mostly invisible on offense (3 points) before once again fouling out with five minutes to go in the game.
After losing five of its first eleven games, there was no doubt that this team needed both more talent and more experience before being ready to compete in the ACC (or even outside of it, apparently). But yesterday's game was not about that. American would kill to have a player as talented as James Gist or Greivis Vasquez. And it wasn't even that American played smarter like the veteran team that they are. This wasn't another example of the Terps being hounded by the costly turnovers that had been so prevalent earlier in the season - the Terps committed just 13 in a game that was in the mid 60s in possessions.
No, the Terps were simply outworked by American. They played with lethargy instead of energy. Even late in the second half there seemed to be no sense of urgency, except perhaps on the part of the always demonstrative Greivis Vasquez. The Terrapins were beaten soundly once again on their home floor by a team that even the NIT Terrapins had crushed, a team against which there could be no mistake which team had the talent advantage on paper.
It would seem that this season won't be salvaged. Certainly the NCAA Tournament appears out of the question even if the team does somehow improve enough to compete at that level. The NIT, or perhaps the new College Basketball Invitational, would likely be the new targets, along with the .500+ record that would accompany appearances in that tournament. But even a .500 finish would likely require the team to win at least 6 ACC games, and while the ACC is not nearly as strong as last year's version, that would seem to be something of a long shot for a team currently ranked #171 in the RPI.
The game followed a pattern not unlike that of other recent disappointing losses. The Terps took an early lead, 11-7, before failing to score for a long stretch. This time it was ten minutes - fully one quarter of the game - without a single point. American did little better in putting the ball in the basket, but eventually they did score enough to put themselves up 25-20 at the half.
In the second half, American took control of the game, never relinquishing the lead. In fact, after a Bambale Osby free throw to open the second half cut the Eagles' lead to four, the Terps would get no closer. American led by as many as 12 en route to winning the game 67-59.
American used a zone defense for most of the game, but this loss cannot be blamed on the Terps' lack of outside shooting. Eric Hayes shot 4-8 from deep while Greivis Vasquez was 6-9 from beyond the arc on his way to a career high 28 points, most of them as he furiously tried to lead a second half comeback. But aside from the two starting guards, the rest of the team combined to make four field goals - one each by James Gist, Braxton Dupree, Landon Milbourne, and Dave Neal. The frontcourt was once again beaten badly on the boards on both ends by a smaller and less athletic opposing frontline. Bambale Osby grabbed just 1 rebound in 15 minutes, Dino Gregory snared none in 6 minutes, and James Gist got just 4 in 22 minutes while being mostly invisible on offense (3 points) before once again fouling out with five minutes to go in the game.
After losing five of its first eleven games, there was no doubt that this team needed both more talent and more experience before being ready to compete in the ACC (or even outside of it, apparently). But yesterday's game was not about that. American would kill to have a player as talented as James Gist or Greivis Vasquez. And it wasn't even that American played smarter like the veteran team that they are. This wasn't another example of the Terps being hounded by the costly turnovers that had been so prevalent earlier in the season - the Terps committed just 13 in a game that was in the mid 60s in possessions.
No, the Terps were simply outworked by American. They played with lethargy instead of energy. Even late in the second half there seemed to be no sense of urgency, except perhaps on the part of the always demonstrative Greivis Vasquez. The Terrapins were beaten soundly once again on their home floor by a team that even the NIT Terrapins had crushed, a team against which there could be no mistake which team had the talent advantage on paper.
It would seem that this season won't be salvaged. Certainly the NCAA Tournament appears out of the question even if the team does somehow improve enough to compete at that level. The NIT, or perhaps the new College Basketball Invitational, would likely be the new targets, along with the .500+ record that would accompany appearances in that tournament. But even a .500 finish would likely require the team to win at least 6 ACC games, and while the ACC is not nearly as strong as last year's version, that would seem to be something of a long shot for a team currently ranked #171 in the RPI.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
ACC Week 5
Miami (10-0): beat Mississippi State and Stetson. Miami was wildly underrated heading into the season (picked dead last in the ACC). Now just a month later they find themselves in both top 25 polls. That probably puts them in the overrated category, but a team that is likely to start 15-0 deserves a little respect even if they do depend very heavily on their star Jack McClinton.
North Carolina (9-0): beat Penn and Rutgers. North Carolina finished out their four game road swing last week by going into the Palestra and the RAC, two tough spots to play, and grabbing big wins. Danny Green is currently the second most frequent shooter on the team, behind only Wayne Ellington and ahead of Tyler Hansbrough. That's not a bad replacement for Reyshawn Terry.
Duke (10-0): beat Albany. Duke keeps rolling, scoring at least 77 points in every one of its games so far this season. Kyle Singler is one of the top freshman in the nation. Everyone knows that. What some might not realize is that Singler has been terrific on the boards and in blocking shots. That is huge for a Duke team without much in the way of a true post presence.
Florida State: (10-3): lost to Butler. The Florida State defense had looked good before getting torched by Butler. Not that there's anything wrong with letting Butler put points on the board, but it does serve as a caution that the Noles' early season defensive improvement might have been something of a small sample size mirage. After bad early losses to Cleveland State and South Florida, it seems that this veteran laden team might be back on the right path.
Clemson (8-0): idle. Another ACC undefeated. Yawn. Next up for Clemson is three games in Puerto Rico in the San Juan Shootout. The key matchups are the second and third games against Depaul and Ole Miss.
Boston College (7-2): lost to Massachusetts. The Eagles were beaten badly on the defensive end by UMass. The numbers defensively look good for now, but besides a stifling win over Saint Louis, the defense has not been good in recent games, giving up well over a point per possesion in three of the past four.
Georgia Tech (4-5): lost to Kansas. The Jackets struggles on the road have been well documented, but it really is striking. Before their exam break the team began December on the road by getting thrashed at Vandy and squeaking by Georgia State. After exams they came home and pushed Kansas to the wire. With ten more road games on the schedule, just making the NIT might be an uphill battle, especially after it was announced the SR Resean Dickey will redshirt this season.
North Carolina State (5-3): beat South Carolina State. It's not an impressive win by any stretch, but after early season losses to New Orleans and East Carolina, you take what you can get. An interesting stretch (Davidson, Cincy, @Seton Hall) is up next. The Wolfpack would do a lot for itself to sweep although going on the road (0-2 with a blowout loss to Michigan State and a loss to ECU) has not been easy thus far.
Virginia (7-2): idle. A long exam break for Virginia is followed by three cupcakes that will likely allow the Cavs to roll into the New Year at 10-2.
Virginia Tech: (5-4): lost to Old Dominion. The Hokies had their chances to pull out the road win against in-state foe Old Dominion, but they just could not get it done. The culprit once again was a complete inability to force turnovers while also allowing the Monarch to make too many shots.
Wake Forest (6-3): beat Bucknell. The Wake Forest offense still ranks outside the top 200 in the nation with only three of their ten regulars having an ORtg above 100. The two players most involved with the Wake offense in their minutes on the floor are a pair of freshmen, James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Johnson will need to improve his outside shooting (7-36 on 3pt FG) but his activity and very good rebounding on both ends bodes well for his future.
North Carolina (9-0): beat Penn and Rutgers. North Carolina finished out their four game road swing last week by going into the Palestra and the RAC, two tough spots to play, and grabbing big wins. Danny Green is currently the second most frequent shooter on the team, behind only Wayne Ellington and ahead of Tyler Hansbrough. That's not a bad replacement for Reyshawn Terry.
Duke (10-0): beat Albany. Duke keeps rolling, scoring at least 77 points in every one of its games so far this season. Kyle Singler is one of the top freshman in the nation. Everyone knows that. What some might not realize is that Singler has been terrific on the boards and in blocking shots. That is huge for a Duke team without much in the way of a true post presence.
Florida State: (10-3): lost to Butler. The Florida State defense had looked good before getting torched by Butler. Not that there's anything wrong with letting Butler put points on the board, but it does serve as a caution that the Noles' early season defensive improvement might have been something of a small sample size mirage. After bad early losses to Cleveland State and South Florida, it seems that this veteran laden team might be back on the right path.
Clemson (8-0): idle. Another ACC undefeated. Yawn. Next up for Clemson is three games in Puerto Rico in the San Juan Shootout. The key matchups are the second and third games against Depaul and Ole Miss.
Boston College (7-2): lost to Massachusetts. The Eagles were beaten badly on the defensive end by UMass. The numbers defensively look good for now, but besides a stifling win over Saint Louis, the defense has not been good in recent games, giving up well over a point per possesion in three of the past four.
Georgia Tech (4-5): lost to Kansas. The Jackets struggles on the road have been well documented, but it really is striking. Before their exam break the team began December on the road by getting thrashed at Vandy and squeaking by Georgia State. After exams they came home and pushed Kansas to the wire. With ten more road games on the schedule, just making the NIT might be an uphill battle, especially after it was announced the SR Resean Dickey will redshirt this season.
North Carolina State (5-3): beat South Carolina State. It's not an impressive win by any stretch, but after early season losses to New Orleans and East Carolina, you take what you can get. An interesting stretch (Davidson, Cincy, @Seton Hall) is up next. The Wolfpack would do a lot for itself to sweep although going on the road (0-2 with a blowout loss to Michigan State and a loss to ECU) has not been easy thus far.
Virginia (7-2): idle. A long exam break for Virginia is followed by three cupcakes that will likely allow the Cavs to roll into the New Year at 10-2.
Virginia Tech: (5-4): lost to Old Dominion. The Hokies had their chances to pull out the road win against in-state foe Old Dominion, but they just could not get it done. The culprit once again was a complete inability to force turnovers while also allowing the Monarch to make too many shots.
Wake Forest (6-3): beat Bucknell. The Wake Forest offense still ranks outside the top 200 in the nation with only three of their ten regulars having an ORtg above 100. The two players most involved with the Wake offense in their minutes on the floor are a pair of freshmen, James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Johnson will need to improve his outside shooting (7-36 on 3pt FG) but his activity and very good rebounding on both ends bodes well for his future.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Bobcats roll Terps
Not the Charlotte NBA team. The college team from Ohio.
What a sad night for the Maryland Terrapins. For the first time since 1989 - Gary Williams' first at the helm as Maryland Head Coach - Maryland paid an opponent to come to their home floor to beat them. Back then it was local MEAC foe Coppin State. This year it was the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC.
There isn't much to say about this beating. Ohio is a solid team, one that can compete in their conference, but before last night they had lost their only two tests to Temple and Holy Cross. Leon Williams, a quality big man out of Cardinal Gibbons in Baltimore, absolutely dominated the Terps to the tune of 17 points and 15 rebounds on the game. The number of boards is particularly indicative of the continued poor rebounding on the part of the Terps.
Greivis Vasquez was the most egregiously bad of the regulars as he missed 11 shots from the field while taking wild shots during the Terps' furious comeback intent. On several trips down the floor on offense it seemed that Vasquez had no intention of passing the ball. Although he had perhaps the worst game, it would be unfair to single out Vasquez. The entire team played poorly, trailing by as many as 16 and never leading in the game.
The next game will be against American after the break for finals. Hopefully the team can begin to put the season back together. It will not be easy. Nothing has been this season.
What a sad night for the Maryland Terrapins. For the first time since 1989 - Gary Williams' first at the helm as Maryland Head Coach - Maryland paid an opponent to come to their home floor to beat them. Back then it was local MEAC foe Coppin State. This year it was the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC.
There isn't much to say about this beating. Ohio is a solid team, one that can compete in their conference, but before last night they had lost their only two tests to Temple and Holy Cross. Leon Williams, a quality big man out of Cardinal Gibbons in Baltimore, absolutely dominated the Terps to the tune of 17 points and 15 rebounds on the game. The number of boards is particularly indicative of the continued poor rebounding on the part of the Terps.
Greivis Vasquez was the most egregiously bad of the regulars as he missed 11 shots from the field while taking wild shots during the Terps' furious comeback intent. On several trips down the floor on offense it seemed that Vasquez had no intention of passing the ball. Although he had perhaps the worst game, it would be unfair to single out Vasquez. The entire team played poorly, trailing by as many as 16 and never leading in the game.
The next game will be against American after the break for finals. Hopefully the team can begin to put the season back together. It will not be easy. Nothing has been this season.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
ACC Week 4
Miami (8-0): beat Florida International. The Canes kept rolling, but the offense that has put up a point per possession just three times in eight games needs to get better for their winning ways to continue. An interesting game at Mississippi State looms.
Duke (9-0): beat Michigan. Duke showed no rust after taking a week off, destroying the Wolverines. Jon Scheyer has helped key the Blue Devils offense so far with a and eFG% of 60.0. Duke might want him to take more than one in six shots during his time on the floor.
North Carolina (8-0): beat Pennsylvania. North Carolina rolled Penn to win for the third time in three consecutive road games. Up next is another road test against Rutgers. Tyler Hansbrough has improved his rebounding early in the season as he leads the ACC in OR% and finds himself in the top 25 in the nation in that category.
Clemson (8-0): beat East Carolina. Clemson's offense needs to get going. Only a top ten rank in OR% keeps them as high as 86th in the adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings. The Tigers have shot just 46.4% on two point shots. James Mays, the team's top inside scorer, has missed the past three games. When he returns he will go a long way in helping the Tigers score inside the three point line. Trevor Booker, despite shooting poorly, pulled down 17 boards against East Carolina and has been great on the offensive glass this season.
Boston College (7-1): beat Saint Louis and Maryland. The Eagles won the first ACC game of the season by beating Maryland on the road. 6-5 FR Corey Raji has been a monster in relatively limited action by hitting both the offensive glass (4th in the ACC) and his field goals (30-44, 6-10 3PT FG).
Florida State (9-2): beat Samford and Maine. The schedule gets tougher starting with a game against Butler on Saturday. The Seminoles play an extremely small lineup, but it has paid dividends as the team can shoot. Their four most used players have all hit at least 10 three pointers while the team as a whole shoots over 79% from the charity stripe. Despite this, turnovers have caused the offense to lag behind the defense against a soft early schedule.
Georgia Tech (4-4): beat Georgia State. Fans in Hotlanta are in for a long season. Thy got back to .500 with a 5 point win over 2-6 Georgia State. It's one thing not to play defense, but when Georgia State has its third best game of the season offensively against your team, it may be time for some radical changes. One of the problems is that the team has played just one of its eight games at home so far. That's not easy for a team that has gone 4-22 away from home in the past two seasons. Things don't get much easier at home as Kansas is the first opponent of the homestand.
North Carolina State (4-3): lost to East Carolina. It isn't easy to win when you have one facet of your team's game that is worse than almost every other team in Division I. For the Wolfpack, the bane of the team so far has been the inability to force turnovers. They force TO less frequently than 338 of the 340 other DI teams. The Wolfpack were similarly situated last year, ranking 329th, so there would seem to be little hope for marked improvement other than regression towards the mean. Sidney Lowe's team does, for the second straight season, go to the line a ton while never sending their opponents there. Such is the fate for a team with a post oriented offense and a defense that isn't aggressive at all in taking the ball from the opposition.
Virginia (7-2): beat Longwood, lost to Syracuse. Free throws were the difference against the Orange as Sean Singletary uncharacteristically hit just two of eight. The Virginia offense was dormant against what has been a terrible Syracus defense. Jeff Jones, the freshman shooting guard, looked to have a breakout game with five threes against Arizona, but since then he has shot just 7-28 from the field while failing to make a shot from deep.
Virginia Tech (5-3): beat North Carolina-Greensboro and George Washington. Even against terrible opposition, back-to-back games giving up less than 40 points is impressive. Jeff Allen, only a frosh, might be the best player on the team as he racks up blocks, steals and rebounds on both ends of the court, ranking in the top 300 nationally in each of those areas.
Wake Forest (5-3): lost to Vanderbilt, Georgia. If Wake Forest could put the ball in the basket at all, they would have a shot to get to at least .500 in the ACC given the way their defense has played. But they don't - witness the games against Iowa, Charlotte and Georgia, all of which hav seen Wake get less than 0.8 points per possession.
Duke (9-0): beat Michigan. Duke showed no rust after taking a week off, destroying the Wolverines. Jon Scheyer has helped key the Blue Devils offense so far with a and eFG% of 60.0. Duke might want him to take more than one in six shots during his time on the floor.
North Carolina (8-0): beat Pennsylvania. North Carolina rolled Penn to win for the third time in three consecutive road games. Up next is another road test against Rutgers. Tyler Hansbrough has improved his rebounding early in the season as he leads the ACC in OR% and finds himself in the top 25 in the nation in that category.
Clemson (8-0): beat East Carolina. Clemson's offense needs to get going. Only a top ten rank in OR% keeps them as high as 86th in the adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings. The Tigers have shot just 46.4% on two point shots. James Mays, the team's top inside scorer, has missed the past three games. When he returns he will go a long way in helping the Tigers score inside the three point line. Trevor Booker, despite shooting poorly, pulled down 17 boards against East Carolina and has been great on the offensive glass this season.
Boston College (7-1): beat Saint Louis and Maryland. The Eagles won the first ACC game of the season by beating Maryland on the road. 6-5 FR Corey Raji has been a monster in relatively limited action by hitting both the offensive glass (4th in the ACC) and his field goals (30-44, 6-10 3PT FG).
Florida State (9-2): beat Samford and Maine. The schedule gets tougher starting with a game against Butler on Saturday. The Seminoles play an extremely small lineup, but it has paid dividends as the team can shoot. Their four most used players have all hit at least 10 three pointers while the team as a whole shoots over 79% from the charity stripe. Despite this, turnovers have caused the offense to lag behind the defense against a soft early schedule.
Georgia Tech (4-4): beat Georgia State. Fans in Hotlanta are in for a long season. Thy got back to .500 with a 5 point win over 2-6 Georgia State. It's one thing not to play defense, but when Georgia State has its third best game of the season offensively against your team, it may be time for some radical changes. One of the problems is that the team has played just one of its eight games at home so far. That's not easy for a team that has gone 4-22 away from home in the past two seasons. Things don't get much easier at home as Kansas is the first opponent of the homestand.
North Carolina State (4-3): lost to East Carolina. It isn't easy to win when you have one facet of your team's game that is worse than almost every other team in Division I. For the Wolfpack, the bane of the team so far has been the inability to force turnovers. They force TO less frequently than 338 of the 340 other DI teams. The Wolfpack were similarly situated last year, ranking 329th, so there would seem to be little hope for marked improvement other than regression towards the mean. Sidney Lowe's team does, for the second straight season, go to the line a ton while never sending their opponents there. Such is the fate for a team with a post oriented offense and a defense that isn't aggressive at all in taking the ball from the opposition.
Virginia (7-2): beat Longwood, lost to Syracuse. Free throws were the difference against the Orange as Sean Singletary uncharacteristically hit just two of eight. The Virginia offense was dormant against what has been a terrible Syracus defense. Jeff Jones, the freshman shooting guard, looked to have a breakout game with five threes against Arizona, but since then he has shot just 7-28 from the field while failing to make a shot from deep.
Virginia Tech (5-3): beat North Carolina-Greensboro and George Washington. Even against terrible opposition, back-to-back games giving up less than 40 points is impressive. Jeff Allen, only a frosh, might be the best player on the team as he racks up blocks, steals and rebounds on both ends of the court, ranking in the top 300 nationally in each of those areas.
Wake Forest (5-3): lost to Vanderbilt, Georgia. If Wake Forest could put the ball in the basket at all, they would have a shot to get to at least .500 in the ACC given the way their defense has played. But they don't - witness the games against Iowa, Charlotte and Georgia, all of which hav seen Wake get less than 0.8 points per possession.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Play some D!
Ah, defense, the much overlooked factor in college basketball. Even though defense is essentially half of the game, the analysis of it is typically superficial. Uptempo teams that give up a lot of points tend to be the ones labeled as bad defenders even if their defense is very efficient on a per-possession basis. Meanwhile any team that plays at a snail's pace is lauded for their defensive effort.
Defense on the team level at least has some numbers to flesh out the truth from the fiction. On the individual level, blocks and steals suffice. Unless a player has a reputation as a great lockdown defender, his other contributions rarely go noticed. And defensive rebounding is never brought up as part of the defensive equation outside the domain of tempo-free stats.
So what's the point of this soliloquy? To take the opportunity to look at some teams expected to be contenders whose defense has not been up to snuff so far. Of course it's still early, but with 1/3 of the schedule done (or close to it), it's not too early to take a peak at the numbers.
Syracuse - adj. DEff ranking: 149
issues: turnover percentage, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA
Jim Boeheim cried crocodile tears for months after his team was relegated to the NIT last season, but with the incoming 2007 recruiting class, led by Donte Greene and Johnny Flynn, most expected that to be a short departure from playing in the meaningful tournament. Perhaps that was premature. The team forces no turnovers, although that should not be a surprise in the (in)famous Syracuse 2-3 Zone Defense. The way to beat a zone is to hit shots from the outside. The Orange's opponents always launch from deep, but it's not that often that they shoot 39% from the perimeter. That number will likely go down, but having already been torched by Massachusetts (1.32 points per possession) and Rhode Island (1.15) of the A-10, things could get ugly in Big East play.
Vanderbilt - adj. DEff ranking: 123
issues: 3pt FG%, turnover percentage, defensive rebounding.
Freshman Andrew Ogilvy has been outstanding in leading the Commodores to a 9-0 start, but the defense will have to improve for that to continue into SEC play. Vandy actually has a big team - or at least one of above average size - but they've continued their poor defensive rebounding present for most of the Kevin Stallings Era. Teams continue to bomb threes over the Vandy defense. That stings, but it would sting even more if they didn't hit 43.9% of their own shots from long range.
Oregon - adj. DEff ranking: 93
issues: turnover percentage, 2pt FG%
Another team that can't force a turnover. 5-6 Tajuan Porter plays the second most minutes of any Duck but rarely records a steal. A short player is supposed to be quick and pesky; if Porter doesn't force any turnovers, you have to wonder how much he contributes on defense. Despite giving major minutes to just one player over 6-6, Marty Leunen, the Ducks actually block some shots, mainly thanks to Malik Hairston and Bryce Taylor. The other two pointers are the problem. Oregon can't seem to stop the ones it doesn't get a hand on before it hits the rim.
Texas - adj. DEff ranking: 84
issues: defensive rebounding, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA
Texas has the most efficient offense in the country, both in the adjusted and unadjusted rankings, an impressive feat after losing Kevin Durant. But once again they play minimal defense, an unnoticed quality which prevented them from becoming more than a good team in Durant's only season in Austin. Damion James was a good defensive rebounder last season, and this year he has stepped up to fully replace the mamoth presence that Kevin Durant had on the defensive glass last season. Unfortunately no one has replaced his contributions. That tends to happen when you start players that check in at 5-10, 5-11, and 6-2. All three of those players (AJ Abrams, DJ Augustin and Justin Mason) can garner a steal, but they've been helpless in preventing the opposition from raining threes down on the Longhorns.
Take note of these teams. They'll all likely be sold as potential contenders for something of worth, maybe their conferences, maybe the Final Four. But unless they improve their defense, they'll have a tough time fulfilling the prognosticators predictions.
Defense on the team level at least has some numbers to flesh out the truth from the fiction. On the individual level, blocks and steals suffice. Unless a player has a reputation as a great lockdown defender, his other contributions rarely go noticed. And defensive rebounding is never brought up as part of the defensive equation outside the domain of tempo-free stats.
So what's the point of this soliloquy? To take the opportunity to look at some teams expected to be contenders whose defense has not been up to snuff so far. Of course it's still early, but with 1/3 of the schedule done (or close to it), it's not too early to take a peak at the numbers.
Syracuse - adj. DEff ranking: 149
issues: turnover percentage, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA
Jim Boeheim cried crocodile tears for months after his team was relegated to the NIT last season, but with the incoming 2007 recruiting class, led by Donte Greene and Johnny Flynn, most expected that to be a short departure from playing in the meaningful tournament. Perhaps that was premature. The team forces no turnovers, although that should not be a surprise in the (in)famous Syracuse 2-3 Zone Defense. The way to beat a zone is to hit shots from the outside. The Orange's opponents always launch from deep, but it's not that often that they shoot 39% from the perimeter. That number will likely go down, but having already been torched by Massachusetts (1.32 points per possession) and Rhode Island (1.15) of the A-10, things could get ugly in Big East play.
Vanderbilt - adj. DEff ranking: 123
issues: 3pt FG%, turnover percentage, defensive rebounding.
Freshman Andrew Ogilvy has been outstanding in leading the Commodores to a 9-0 start, but the defense will have to improve for that to continue into SEC play. Vandy actually has a big team - or at least one of above average size - but they've continued their poor defensive rebounding present for most of the Kevin Stallings Era. Teams continue to bomb threes over the Vandy defense. That stings, but it would sting even more if they didn't hit 43.9% of their own shots from long range.
Oregon - adj. DEff ranking: 93
issues: turnover percentage, 2pt FG%
Another team that can't force a turnover. 5-6 Tajuan Porter plays the second most minutes of any Duck but rarely records a steal. A short player is supposed to be quick and pesky; if Porter doesn't force any turnovers, you have to wonder how much he contributes on defense. Despite giving major minutes to just one player over 6-6, Marty Leunen, the Ducks actually block some shots, mainly thanks to Malik Hairston and Bryce Taylor. The other two pointers are the problem. Oregon can't seem to stop the ones it doesn't get a hand on before it hits the rim.
Texas - adj. DEff ranking: 84
issues: defensive rebounding, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA
Texas has the most efficient offense in the country, both in the adjusted and unadjusted rankings, an impressive feat after losing Kevin Durant. But once again they play minimal defense, an unnoticed quality which prevented them from becoming more than a good team in Durant's only season in Austin. Damion James was a good defensive rebounder last season, and this year he has stepped up to fully replace the mamoth presence that Kevin Durant had on the defensive glass last season. Unfortunately no one has replaced his contributions. That tends to happen when you start players that check in at 5-10, 5-11, and 6-2. All three of those players (AJ Abrams, DJ Augustin and Justin Mason) can garner a steal, but they've been helpless in preventing the opposition from raining threes down on the Longhorns.
Take note of these teams. They'll all likely be sold as potential contenders for something of worth, maybe their conferences, maybe the Final Four. But unless they improve their defense, they'll have a tough time fulfilling the prognosticators predictions.
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