Just a quick look at the field of 65 as it stands now. We know it will change - it would seem the Big East will have trouble getting a record nine bids while the A-10 would be thrilled to get three let alone four.
Big East: Georgetown, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Providence, Villanova, Marquette, Connecticut, Notre Dame
ACC: North Carolina, Miami, Duke, Clemson, Virginia, Florida State, Boston College
Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State
BIG XII: Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma
PAC 10: UCLA, USC, Arizona, Washington State, Stanford
A10: Rhode Island, Xavier, Dayton, Massachusetts
SEC: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas
WCC: Saint Mary's, Gonzaga
MVC: Creighton, Drake
CAA: George Mason
Summit: Oral Roberts
MWC: UNLV
CUSA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WAC: Nevada
MAC: Ohio
America East: UMBC
MEAC: Hampton
NEC: Long Island
SWAC: Alabama State
OVC: Southeast Missouri State
A-SUN: East Tennessee State
MAAC: Siena
Sun Belt: South Alabama
Patriot: Holy Cross
Big West: UC-Santa Barbara
Southern: Davidson
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
Southland: Sam Houston State
Big South: winthrop
Ivy: Brown
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Terps lose yet again...to American?
Things just keep getting worse for the Maryland Terrapins. Nine days after a home loss to Ohio that seemed like rock bottom at the time, the Terrapins were once again defeated in convincing fashion. This time the opposition wasn't even a decent mid major; it was American University of the Patriot League, the school where Gary Williams began his career as a collegiate head coach almost 30 years ago.
The game followed a pattern not unlike that of other recent disappointing losses. The Terps took an early lead, 11-7, before failing to score for a long stretch. This time it was ten minutes - fully one quarter of the game - without a single point. American did little better in putting the ball in the basket, but eventually they did score enough to put themselves up 25-20 at the half.
In the second half, American took control of the game, never relinquishing the lead. In fact, after a Bambale Osby free throw to open the second half cut the Eagles' lead to four, the Terps would get no closer. American led by as many as 12 en route to winning the game 67-59.
American used a zone defense for most of the game, but this loss cannot be blamed on the Terps' lack of outside shooting. Eric Hayes shot 4-8 from deep while Greivis Vasquez was 6-9 from beyond the arc on his way to a career high 28 points, most of them as he furiously tried to lead a second half comeback. But aside from the two starting guards, the rest of the team combined to make four field goals - one each by James Gist, Braxton Dupree, Landon Milbourne, and Dave Neal. The frontcourt was once again beaten badly on the boards on both ends by a smaller and less athletic opposing frontline. Bambale Osby grabbed just 1 rebound in 15 minutes, Dino Gregory snared none in 6 minutes, and James Gist got just 4 in 22 minutes while being mostly invisible on offense (3 points) before once again fouling out with five minutes to go in the game.
After losing five of its first eleven games, there was no doubt that this team needed both more talent and more experience before being ready to compete in the ACC (or even outside of it, apparently). But yesterday's game was not about that. American would kill to have a player as talented as James Gist or Greivis Vasquez. And it wasn't even that American played smarter like the veteran team that they are. This wasn't another example of the Terps being hounded by the costly turnovers that had been so prevalent earlier in the season - the Terps committed just 13 in a game that was in the mid 60s in possessions.
No, the Terps were simply outworked by American. They played with lethargy instead of energy. Even late in the second half there seemed to be no sense of urgency, except perhaps on the part of the always demonstrative Greivis Vasquez. The Terrapins were beaten soundly once again on their home floor by a team that even the NIT Terrapins had crushed, a team against which there could be no mistake which team had the talent advantage on paper.
It would seem that this season won't be salvaged. Certainly the NCAA Tournament appears out of the question even if the team does somehow improve enough to compete at that level. The NIT, or perhaps the new College Basketball Invitational, would likely be the new targets, along with the .500+ record that would accompany appearances in that tournament. But even a .500 finish would likely require the team to win at least 6 ACC games, and while the ACC is not nearly as strong as last year's version, that would seem to be something of a long shot for a team currently ranked #171 in the RPI.
The game followed a pattern not unlike that of other recent disappointing losses. The Terps took an early lead, 11-7, before failing to score for a long stretch. This time it was ten minutes - fully one quarter of the game - without a single point. American did little better in putting the ball in the basket, but eventually they did score enough to put themselves up 25-20 at the half.
In the second half, American took control of the game, never relinquishing the lead. In fact, after a Bambale Osby free throw to open the second half cut the Eagles' lead to four, the Terps would get no closer. American led by as many as 12 en route to winning the game 67-59.
American used a zone defense for most of the game, but this loss cannot be blamed on the Terps' lack of outside shooting. Eric Hayes shot 4-8 from deep while Greivis Vasquez was 6-9 from beyond the arc on his way to a career high 28 points, most of them as he furiously tried to lead a second half comeback. But aside from the two starting guards, the rest of the team combined to make four field goals - one each by James Gist, Braxton Dupree, Landon Milbourne, and Dave Neal. The frontcourt was once again beaten badly on the boards on both ends by a smaller and less athletic opposing frontline. Bambale Osby grabbed just 1 rebound in 15 minutes, Dino Gregory snared none in 6 minutes, and James Gist got just 4 in 22 minutes while being mostly invisible on offense (3 points) before once again fouling out with five minutes to go in the game.
After losing five of its first eleven games, there was no doubt that this team needed both more talent and more experience before being ready to compete in the ACC (or even outside of it, apparently). But yesterday's game was not about that. American would kill to have a player as talented as James Gist or Greivis Vasquez. And it wasn't even that American played smarter like the veteran team that they are. This wasn't another example of the Terps being hounded by the costly turnovers that had been so prevalent earlier in the season - the Terps committed just 13 in a game that was in the mid 60s in possessions.
No, the Terps were simply outworked by American. They played with lethargy instead of energy. Even late in the second half there seemed to be no sense of urgency, except perhaps on the part of the always demonstrative Greivis Vasquez. The Terrapins were beaten soundly once again on their home floor by a team that even the NIT Terrapins had crushed, a team against which there could be no mistake which team had the talent advantage on paper.
It would seem that this season won't be salvaged. Certainly the NCAA Tournament appears out of the question even if the team does somehow improve enough to compete at that level. The NIT, or perhaps the new College Basketball Invitational, would likely be the new targets, along with the .500+ record that would accompany appearances in that tournament. But even a .500 finish would likely require the team to win at least 6 ACC games, and while the ACC is not nearly as strong as last year's version, that would seem to be something of a long shot for a team currently ranked #171 in the RPI.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
ACC Week 5
Miami (10-0): beat Mississippi State and Stetson. Miami was wildly underrated heading into the season (picked dead last in the ACC). Now just a month later they find themselves in both top 25 polls. That probably puts them in the overrated category, but a team that is likely to start 15-0 deserves a little respect even if they do depend very heavily on their star Jack McClinton.
North Carolina (9-0): beat Penn and Rutgers. North Carolina finished out their four game road swing last week by going into the Palestra and the RAC, two tough spots to play, and grabbing big wins. Danny Green is currently the second most frequent shooter on the team, behind only Wayne Ellington and ahead of Tyler Hansbrough. That's not a bad replacement for Reyshawn Terry.
Duke (10-0): beat Albany. Duke keeps rolling, scoring at least 77 points in every one of its games so far this season. Kyle Singler is one of the top freshman in the nation. Everyone knows that. What some might not realize is that Singler has been terrific on the boards and in blocking shots. That is huge for a Duke team without much in the way of a true post presence.
Florida State: (10-3): lost to Butler. The Florida State defense had looked good before getting torched by Butler. Not that there's anything wrong with letting Butler put points on the board, but it does serve as a caution that the Noles' early season defensive improvement might have been something of a small sample size mirage. After bad early losses to Cleveland State and South Florida, it seems that this veteran laden team might be back on the right path.
Clemson (8-0): idle. Another ACC undefeated. Yawn. Next up for Clemson is three games in Puerto Rico in the San Juan Shootout. The key matchups are the second and third games against Depaul and Ole Miss.
Boston College (7-2): lost to Massachusetts. The Eagles were beaten badly on the defensive end by UMass. The numbers defensively look good for now, but besides a stifling win over Saint Louis, the defense has not been good in recent games, giving up well over a point per possesion in three of the past four.
Georgia Tech (4-5): lost to Kansas. The Jackets struggles on the road have been well documented, but it really is striking. Before their exam break the team began December on the road by getting thrashed at Vandy and squeaking by Georgia State. After exams they came home and pushed Kansas to the wire. With ten more road games on the schedule, just making the NIT might be an uphill battle, especially after it was announced the SR Resean Dickey will redshirt this season.
North Carolina State (5-3): beat South Carolina State. It's not an impressive win by any stretch, but after early season losses to New Orleans and East Carolina, you take what you can get. An interesting stretch (Davidson, Cincy, @Seton Hall) is up next. The Wolfpack would do a lot for itself to sweep although going on the road (0-2 with a blowout loss to Michigan State and a loss to ECU) has not been easy thus far.
Virginia (7-2): idle. A long exam break for Virginia is followed by three cupcakes that will likely allow the Cavs to roll into the New Year at 10-2.
Virginia Tech: (5-4): lost to Old Dominion. The Hokies had their chances to pull out the road win against in-state foe Old Dominion, but they just could not get it done. The culprit once again was a complete inability to force turnovers while also allowing the Monarch to make too many shots.
Wake Forest (6-3): beat Bucknell. The Wake Forest offense still ranks outside the top 200 in the nation with only three of their ten regulars having an ORtg above 100. The two players most involved with the Wake offense in their minutes on the floor are a pair of freshmen, James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Johnson will need to improve his outside shooting (7-36 on 3pt FG) but his activity and very good rebounding on both ends bodes well for his future.
North Carolina (9-0): beat Penn and Rutgers. North Carolina finished out their four game road swing last week by going into the Palestra and the RAC, two tough spots to play, and grabbing big wins. Danny Green is currently the second most frequent shooter on the team, behind only Wayne Ellington and ahead of Tyler Hansbrough. That's not a bad replacement for Reyshawn Terry.
Duke (10-0): beat Albany. Duke keeps rolling, scoring at least 77 points in every one of its games so far this season. Kyle Singler is one of the top freshman in the nation. Everyone knows that. What some might not realize is that Singler has been terrific on the boards and in blocking shots. That is huge for a Duke team without much in the way of a true post presence.
Florida State: (10-3): lost to Butler. The Florida State defense had looked good before getting torched by Butler. Not that there's anything wrong with letting Butler put points on the board, but it does serve as a caution that the Noles' early season defensive improvement might have been something of a small sample size mirage. After bad early losses to Cleveland State and South Florida, it seems that this veteran laden team might be back on the right path.
Clemson (8-0): idle. Another ACC undefeated. Yawn. Next up for Clemson is three games in Puerto Rico in the San Juan Shootout. The key matchups are the second and third games against Depaul and Ole Miss.
Boston College (7-2): lost to Massachusetts. The Eagles were beaten badly on the defensive end by UMass. The numbers defensively look good for now, but besides a stifling win over Saint Louis, the defense has not been good in recent games, giving up well over a point per possesion in three of the past four.
Georgia Tech (4-5): lost to Kansas. The Jackets struggles on the road have been well documented, but it really is striking. Before their exam break the team began December on the road by getting thrashed at Vandy and squeaking by Georgia State. After exams they came home and pushed Kansas to the wire. With ten more road games on the schedule, just making the NIT might be an uphill battle, especially after it was announced the SR Resean Dickey will redshirt this season.
North Carolina State (5-3): beat South Carolina State. It's not an impressive win by any stretch, but after early season losses to New Orleans and East Carolina, you take what you can get. An interesting stretch (Davidson, Cincy, @Seton Hall) is up next. The Wolfpack would do a lot for itself to sweep although going on the road (0-2 with a blowout loss to Michigan State and a loss to ECU) has not been easy thus far.
Virginia (7-2): idle. A long exam break for Virginia is followed by three cupcakes that will likely allow the Cavs to roll into the New Year at 10-2.
Virginia Tech: (5-4): lost to Old Dominion. The Hokies had their chances to pull out the road win against in-state foe Old Dominion, but they just could not get it done. The culprit once again was a complete inability to force turnovers while also allowing the Monarch to make too many shots.
Wake Forest (6-3): beat Bucknell. The Wake Forest offense still ranks outside the top 200 in the nation with only three of their ten regulars having an ORtg above 100. The two players most involved with the Wake offense in their minutes on the floor are a pair of freshmen, James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Johnson will need to improve his outside shooting (7-36 on 3pt FG) but his activity and very good rebounding on both ends bodes well for his future.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Bobcats roll Terps
Not the Charlotte NBA team. The college team from Ohio.
What a sad night for the Maryland Terrapins. For the first time since 1989 - Gary Williams' first at the helm as Maryland Head Coach - Maryland paid an opponent to come to their home floor to beat them. Back then it was local MEAC foe Coppin State. This year it was the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC.
There isn't much to say about this beating. Ohio is a solid team, one that can compete in their conference, but before last night they had lost their only two tests to Temple and Holy Cross. Leon Williams, a quality big man out of Cardinal Gibbons in Baltimore, absolutely dominated the Terps to the tune of 17 points and 15 rebounds on the game. The number of boards is particularly indicative of the continued poor rebounding on the part of the Terps.
Greivis Vasquez was the most egregiously bad of the regulars as he missed 11 shots from the field while taking wild shots during the Terps' furious comeback intent. On several trips down the floor on offense it seemed that Vasquez had no intention of passing the ball. Although he had perhaps the worst game, it would be unfair to single out Vasquez. The entire team played poorly, trailing by as many as 16 and never leading in the game.
The next game will be against American after the break for finals. Hopefully the team can begin to put the season back together. It will not be easy. Nothing has been this season.
What a sad night for the Maryland Terrapins. For the first time since 1989 - Gary Williams' first at the helm as Maryland Head Coach - Maryland paid an opponent to come to their home floor to beat them. Back then it was local MEAC foe Coppin State. This year it was the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC.
There isn't much to say about this beating. Ohio is a solid team, one that can compete in their conference, but before last night they had lost their only two tests to Temple and Holy Cross. Leon Williams, a quality big man out of Cardinal Gibbons in Baltimore, absolutely dominated the Terps to the tune of 17 points and 15 rebounds on the game. The number of boards is particularly indicative of the continued poor rebounding on the part of the Terps.
Greivis Vasquez was the most egregiously bad of the regulars as he missed 11 shots from the field while taking wild shots during the Terps' furious comeback intent. On several trips down the floor on offense it seemed that Vasquez had no intention of passing the ball. Although he had perhaps the worst game, it would be unfair to single out Vasquez. The entire team played poorly, trailing by as many as 16 and never leading in the game.
The next game will be against American after the break for finals. Hopefully the team can begin to put the season back together. It will not be easy. Nothing has been this season.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
ACC Week 4
Miami (8-0): beat Florida International. The Canes kept rolling, but the offense that has put up a point per possession just three times in eight games needs to get better for their winning ways to continue. An interesting game at Mississippi State looms.
Duke (9-0): beat Michigan. Duke showed no rust after taking a week off, destroying the Wolverines. Jon Scheyer has helped key the Blue Devils offense so far with a and eFG% of 60.0. Duke might want him to take more than one in six shots during his time on the floor.
North Carolina (8-0): beat Pennsylvania. North Carolina rolled Penn to win for the third time in three consecutive road games. Up next is another road test against Rutgers. Tyler Hansbrough has improved his rebounding early in the season as he leads the ACC in OR% and finds himself in the top 25 in the nation in that category.
Clemson (8-0): beat East Carolina. Clemson's offense needs to get going. Only a top ten rank in OR% keeps them as high as 86th in the adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings. The Tigers have shot just 46.4% on two point shots. James Mays, the team's top inside scorer, has missed the past three games. When he returns he will go a long way in helping the Tigers score inside the three point line. Trevor Booker, despite shooting poorly, pulled down 17 boards against East Carolina and has been great on the offensive glass this season.
Boston College (7-1): beat Saint Louis and Maryland. The Eagles won the first ACC game of the season by beating Maryland on the road. 6-5 FR Corey Raji has been a monster in relatively limited action by hitting both the offensive glass (4th in the ACC) and his field goals (30-44, 6-10 3PT FG).
Florida State (9-2): beat Samford and Maine. The schedule gets tougher starting with a game against Butler on Saturday. The Seminoles play an extremely small lineup, but it has paid dividends as the team can shoot. Their four most used players have all hit at least 10 three pointers while the team as a whole shoots over 79% from the charity stripe. Despite this, turnovers have caused the offense to lag behind the defense against a soft early schedule.
Georgia Tech (4-4): beat Georgia State. Fans in Hotlanta are in for a long season. Thy got back to .500 with a 5 point win over 2-6 Georgia State. It's one thing not to play defense, but when Georgia State has its third best game of the season offensively against your team, it may be time for some radical changes. One of the problems is that the team has played just one of its eight games at home so far. That's not easy for a team that has gone 4-22 away from home in the past two seasons. Things don't get much easier at home as Kansas is the first opponent of the homestand.
North Carolina State (4-3): lost to East Carolina. It isn't easy to win when you have one facet of your team's game that is worse than almost every other team in Division I. For the Wolfpack, the bane of the team so far has been the inability to force turnovers. They force TO less frequently than 338 of the 340 other DI teams. The Wolfpack were similarly situated last year, ranking 329th, so there would seem to be little hope for marked improvement other than regression towards the mean. Sidney Lowe's team does, for the second straight season, go to the line a ton while never sending their opponents there. Such is the fate for a team with a post oriented offense and a defense that isn't aggressive at all in taking the ball from the opposition.
Virginia (7-2): beat Longwood, lost to Syracuse. Free throws were the difference against the Orange as Sean Singletary uncharacteristically hit just two of eight. The Virginia offense was dormant against what has been a terrible Syracus defense. Jeff Jones, the freshman shooting guard, looked to have a breakout game with five threes against Arizona, but since then he has shot just 7-28 from the field while failing to make a shot from deep.
Virginia Tech (5-3): beat North Carolina-Greensboro and George Washington. Even against terrible opposition, back-to-back games giving up less than 40 points is impressive. Jeff Allen, only a frosh, might be the best player on the team as he racks up blocks, steals and rebounds on both ends of the court, ranking in the top 300 nationally in each of those areas.
Wake Forest (5-3): lost to Vanderbilt, Georgia. If Wake Forest could put the ball in the basket at all, they would have a shot to get to at least .500 in the ACC given the way their defense has played. But they don't - witness the games against Iowa, Charlotte and Georgia, all of which hav seen Wake get less than 0.8 points per possession.
Duke (9-0): beat Michigan. Duke showed no rust after taking a week off, destroying the Wolverines. Jon Scheyer has helped key the Blue Devils offense so far with a and eFG% of 60.0. Duke might want him to take more than one in six shots during his time on the floor.
North Carolina (8-0): beat Pennsylvania. North Carolina rolled Penn to win for the third time in three consecutive road games. Up next is another road test against Rutgers. Tyler Hansbrough has improved his rebounding early in the season as he leads the ACC in OR% and finds himself in the top 25 in the nation in that category.
Clemson (8-0): beat East Carolina. Clemson's offense needs to get going. Only a top ten rank in OR% keeps them as high as 86th in the adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings. The Tigers have shot just 46.4% on two point shots. James Mays, the team's top inside scorer, has missed the past three games. When he returns he will go a long way in helping the Tigers score inside the three point line. Trevor Booker, despite shooting poorly, pulled down 17 boards against East Carolina and has been great on the offensive glass this season.
Boston College (7-1): beat Saint Louis and Maryland. The Eagles won the first ACC game of the season by beating Maryland on the road. 6-5 FR Corey Raji has been a monster in relatively limited action by hitting both the offensive glass (4th in the ACC) and his field goals (30-44, 6-10 3PT FG).
Florida State (9-2): beat Samford and Maine. The schedule gets tougher starting with a game against Butler on Saturday. The Seminoles play an extremely small lineup, but it has paid dividends as the team can shoot. Their four most used players have all hit at least 10 three pointers while the team as a whole shoots over 79% from the charity stripe. Despite this, turnovers have caused the offense to lag behind the defense against a soft early schedule.
Georgia Tech (4-4): beat Georgia State. Fans in Hotlanta are in for a long season. Thy got back to .500 with a 5 point win over 2-6 Georgia State. It's one thing not to play defense, but when Georgia State has its third best game of the season offensively against your team, it may be time for some radical changes. One of the problems is that the team has played just one of its eight games at home so far. That's not easy for a team that has gone 4-22 away from home in the past two seasons. Things don't get much easier at home as Kansas is the first opponent of the homestand.
North Carolina State (4-3): lost to East Carolina. It isn't easy to win when you have one facet of your team's game that is worse than almost every other team in Division I. For the Wolfpack, the bane of the team so far has been the inability to force turnovers. They force TO less frequently than 338 of the 340 other DI teams. The Wolfpack were similarly situated last year, ranking 329th, so there would seem to be little hope for marked improvement other than regression towards the mean. Sidney Lowe's team does, for the second straight season, go to the line a ton while never sending their opponents there. Such is the fate for a team with a post oriented offense and a defense that isn't aggressive at all in taking the ball from the opposition.
Virginia (7-2): beat Longwood, lost to Syracuse. Free throws were the difference against the Orange as Sean Singletary uncharacteristically hit just two of eight. The Virginia offense was dormant against what has been a terrible Syracus defense. Jeff Jones, the freshman shooting guard, looked to have a breakout game with five threes against Arizona, but since then he has shot just 7-28 from the field while failing to make a shot from deep.
Virginia Tech (5-3): beat North Carolina-Greensboro and George Washington. Even against terrible opposition, back-to-back games giving up less than 40 points is impressive. Jeff Allen, only a frosh, might be the best player on the team as he racks up blocks, steals and rebounds on both ends of the court, ranking in the top 300 nationally in each of those areas.
Wake Forest (5-3): lost to Vanderbilt, Georgia. If Wake Forest could put the ball in the basket at all, they would have a shot to get to at least .500 in the ACC given the way their defense has played. But they don't - witness the games against Iowa, Charlotte and Georgia, all of which hav seen Wake get less than 0.8 points per possession.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Play some D!
Ah, defense, the much overlooked factor in college basketball. Even though defense is essentially half of the game, the analysis of it is typically superficial. Uptempo teams that give up a lot of points tend to be the ones labeled as bad defenders even if their defense is very efficient on a per-possession basis. Meanwhile any team that plays at a snail's pace is lauded for their defensive effort.
Defense on the team level at least has some numbers to flesh out the truth from the fiction. On the individual level, blocks and steals suffice. Unless a player has a reputation as a great lockdown defender, his other contributions rarely go noticed. And defensive rebounding is never brought up as part of the defensive equation outside the domain of tempo-free stats.
So what's the point of this soliloquy? To take the opportunity to look at some teams expected to be contenders whose defense has not been up to snuff so far. Of course it's still early, but with 1/3 of the schedule done (or close to it), it's not too early to take a peak at the numbers.
Syracuse - adj. DEff ranking: 149
issues: turnover percentage, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA
Jim Boeheim cried crocodile tears for months after his team was relegated to the NIT last season, but with the incoming 2007 recruiting class, led by Donte Greene and Johnny Flynn, most expected that to be a short departure from playing in the meaningful tournament. Perhaps that was premature. The team forces no turnovers, although that should not be a surprise in the (in)famous Syracuse 2-3 Zone Defense. The way to beat a zone is to hit shots from the outside. The Orange's opponents always launch from deep, but it's not that often that they shoot 39% from the perimeter. That number will likely go down, but having already been torched by Massachusetts (1.32 points per possession) and Rhode Island (1.15) of the A-10, things could get ugly in Big East play.
Vanderbilt - adj. DEff ranking: 123
issues: 3pt FG%, turnover percentage, defensive rebounding.
Freshman Andrew Ogilvy has been outstanding in leading the Commodores to a 9-0 start, but the defense will have to improve for that to continue into SEC play. Vandy actually has a big team - or at least one of above average size - but they've continued their poor defensive rebounding present for most of the Kevin Stallings Era. Teams continue to bomb threes over the Vandy defense. That stings, but it would sting even more if they didn't hit 43.9% of their own shots from long range.
Oregon - adj. DEff ranking: 93
issues: turnover percentage, 2pt FG%
Another team that can't force a turnover. 5-6 Tajuan Porter plays the second most minutes of any Duck but rarely records a steal. A short player is supposed to be quick and pesky; if Porter doesn't force any turnovers, you have to wonder how much he contributes on defense. Despite giving major minutes to just one player over 6-6, Marty Leunen, the Ducks actually block some shots, mainly thanks to Malik Hairston and Bryce Taylor. The other two pointers are the problem. Oregon can't seem to stop the ones it doesn't get a hand on before it hits the rim.
Texas - adj. DEff ranking: 84
issues: defensive rebounding, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA
Texas has the most efficient offense in the country, both in the adjusted and unadjusted rankings, an impressive feat after losing Kevin Durant. But once again they play minimal defense, an unnoticed quality which prevented them from becoming more than a good team in Durant's only season in Austin. Damion James was a good defensive rebounder last season, and this year he has stepped up to fully replace the mamoth presence that Kevin Durant had on the defensive glass last season. Unfortunately no one has replaced his contributions. That tends to happen when you start players that check in at 5-10, 5-11, and 6-2. All three of those players (AJ Abrams, DJ Augustin and Justin Mason) can garner a steal, but they've been helpless in preventing the opposition from raining threes down on the Longhorns.
Take note of these teams. They'll all likely be sold as potential contenders for something of worth, maybe their conferences, maybe the Final Four. But unless they improve their defense, they'll have a tough time fulfilling the prognosticators predictions.
Defense on the team level at least has some numbers to flesh out the truth from the fiction. On the individual level, blocks and steals suffice. Unless a player has a reputation as a great lockdown defender, his other contributions rarely go noticed. And defensive rebounding is never brought up as part of the defensive equation outside the domain of tempo-free stats.
So what's the point of this soliloquy? To take the opportunity to look at some teams expected to be contenders whose defense has not been up to snuff so far. Of course it's still early, but with 1/3 of the schedule done (or close to it), it's not too early to take a peak at the numbers.
Syracuse - adj. DEff ranking: 149
issues: turnover percentage, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA
Jim Boeheim cried crocodile tears for months after his team was relegated to the NIT last season, but with the incoming 2007 recruiting class, led by Donte Greene and Johnny Flynn, most expected that to be a short departure from playing in the meaningful tournament. Perhaps that was premature. The team forces no turnovers, although that should not be a surprise in the (in)famous Syracuse 2-3 Zone Defense. The way to beat a zone is to hit shots from the outside. The Orange's opponents always launch from deep, but it's not that often that they shoot 39% from the perimeter. That number will likely go down, but having already been torched by Massachusetts (1.32 points per possession) and Rhode Island (1.15) of the A-10, things could get ugly in Big East play.
Vanderbilt - adj. DEff ranking: 123
issues: 3pt FG%, turnover percentage, defensive rebounding.
Freshman Andrew Ogilvy has been outstanding in leading the Commodores to a 9-0 start, but the defense will have to improve for that to continue into SEC play. Vandy actually has a big team - or at least one of above average size - but they've continued their poor defensive rebounding present for most of the Kevin Stallings Era. Teams continue to bomb threes over the Vandy defense. That stings, but it would sting even more if they didn't hit 43.9% of their own shots from long range.
Oregon - adj. DEff ranking: 93
issues: turnover percentage, 2pt FG%
Another team that can't force a turnover. 5-6 Tajuan Porter plays the second most minutes of any Duck but rarely records a steal. A short player is supposed to be quick and pesky; if Porter doesn't force any turnovers, you have to wonder how much he contributes on defense. Despite giving major minutes to just one player over 6-6, Marty Leunen, the Ducks actually block some shots, mainly thanks to Malik Hairston and Bryce Taylor. The other two pointers are the problem. Oregon can't seem to stop the ones it doesn't get a hand on before it hits the rim.
Texas - adj. DEff ranking: 84
issues: defensive rebounding, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA
Texas has the most efficient offense in the country, both in the adjusted and unadjusted rankings, an impressive feat after losing Kevin Durant. But once again they play minimal defense, an unnoticed quality which prevented them from becoming more than a good team in Durant's only season in Austin. Damion James was a good defensive rebounder last season, and this year he has stepped up to fully replace the mamoth presence that Kevin Durant had on the defensive glass last season. Unfortunately no one has replaced his contributions. That tends to happen when you start players that check in at 5-10, 5-11, and 6-2. All three of those players (AJ Abrams, DJ Augustin and Justin Mason) can garner a steal, but they've been helpless in preventing the opposition from raining threes down on the Longhorns.
Take note of these teams. They'll all likely be sold as potential contenders for something of worth, maybe their conferences, maybe the Final Four. But unless they improve their defense, they'll have a tough time fulfilling the prognosticators predictions.
Terps fall again in ACC Opener
It's far too early to declare any game a must win, but the Terps already had three losses and just one quality win (against a decent Illinois team) in their first nine games. Boston College was not expected to be among the top ACC teams this season so winning at home against the Eagles seemed imperative. But after Greivis Vasquez was called for three straight fouls on one possession - including a technical - to foul out of the game midway through the second, a four point Terrapin lead evaporated as the team lost by three after a furious comeback.
Even without finding his stroke (1-6 from three), Vasquez was playing perhaps his best all around game with 11 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists - and perhaps most importantly - just one turnover. Paired with Eric Hayes (13 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, no turnovers) in the backcourt in their second game after switching roles, they sparked the team to a lead that got as big as 6 with 13 minutes left.
Maryland turned the ball over just 10 times on the night, easily their best performance of the season. That led to the team's most efficient offensive performance to date in its five games against quality opposition. But on the defensive side the Terps simply let Boston College get to the line to often where they converted spectacularly. The three point shot also helped put Boston College ahead even though they were judicious in their attempts (13 on the night).
This was a game that left a sour taste in the mouths of fans. While the team struggled somewhat defensively, namely the defensive boards, they also improved in other areas. The game felt like it should have been a win, especially if Vasquez had not fouled out on a questionable technical foul call in the second half. Live and learn for the Terrapins yet again. They'll have a home date with Ohio before the schedule breaks for exams.
Even without finding his stroke (1-6 from three), Vasquez was playing perhaps his best all around game with 11 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists - and perhaps most importantly - just one turnover. Paired with Eric Hayes (13 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, no turnovers) in the backcourt in their second game after switching roles, they sparked the team to a lead that got as big as 6 with 13 minutes left.
Maryland turned the ball over just 10 times on the night, easily their best performance of the season. That led to the team's most efficient offensive performance to date in its five games against quality opposition. But on the defensive side the Terps simply let Boston College get to the line to often where they converted spectacularly. The three point shot also helped put Boston College ahead even though they were judicious in their attempts (13 on the night).
This was a game that left a sour taste in the mouths of fans. While the team struggled somewhat defensively, namely the defensive boards, they also improved in other areas. The game felt like it should have been a win, especially if Vasquez had not fouled out on a questionable technical foul call in the second half. Live and learn for the Terrapins yet again. They'll have a home date with Ohio before the schedule breaks for exams.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Terps-BC Preview
Boston College will roll into the Comcast Center tonight with a record of 6-1 including wins over Rhode Island, Michigan and Saint Louis. The lone loss came in an OT loss at home against Providence, a game the Eagles were down big in the second half before making a big charge late. Like the Terps, this will be the first ACC game for the young Eagles.
After losing Jared Dudley (and Sean Williams earlier), the Eagles were expected to take a step or two back. Over the past few years, the team's offense had been anywhere from very good to stellar, but the defense had been at the opposite end of the spectrum, to the point where the Eagles ranked 239th in unadjusted defensive efficiency. With only Tyreese Rice to carry a large offensive role it seemed that the poor defense would finally catch up to the Eagles.
But the resourceful Al Skinner has overseen a transformation so far this season, as his Eagles now play good defense and win in spite of an offense that has been nothing special so far. That's largely because the Eagles now hit the defensive glass while also forcing just a few more turnovers. Boston College still isn't good in either of those two areas, but improving from sub-300 in the nation to a spot closer to respectability goes a long way.
Boston College continues to block shots - SR Tyrelle Blair leads all major conference players by blocking 15.1% of opponents two point shots so far - but unlike last year the Eagles have actually forced opponents to miss two pointers that weren't blocked. Combine that with fewer second chances, and that's a recipe for an improved defense.
Tyrese Rice has dominated the offense to no one's surprise, but the Eagles will need more. Corey Raji has been strong in his debut season, leading the team in ORtg in limited minutes while FR Rakim Sanders and SO Shamari Spears have also contributed some points to the mix while shooting well from the field.
After losing Jared Dudley (and Sean Williams earlier), the Eagles were expected to take a step or two back. Over the past few years, the team's offense had been anywhere from very good to stellar, but the defense had been at the opposite end of the spectrum, to the point where the Eagles ranked 239th in unadjusted defensive efficiency. With only Tyreese Rice to carry a large offensive role it seemed that the poor defense would finally catch up to the Eagles.
But the resourceful Al Skinner has overseen a transformation so far this season, as his Eagles now play good defense and win in spite of an offense that has been nothing special so far. That's largely because the Eagles now hit the defensive glass while also forcing just a few more turnovers. Boston College still isn't good in either of those two areas, but improving from sub-300 in the nation to a spot closer to respectability goes a long way.
Boston College continues to block shots - SR Tyrelle Blair leads all major conference players by blocking 15.1% of opponents two point shots so far - but unlike last year the Eagles have actually forced opponents to miss two pointers that weren't blocked. Combine that with fewer second chances, and that's a recipe for an improved defense.
Tyrese Rice has dominated the offense to no one's surprise, but the Eagles will need more. Corey Raji has been strong in his debut season, leading the team in ORtg in limited minutes while FR Rakim Sanders and SO Shamari Spears have also contributed some points to the mix while shooting well from the field.
Friday, December 7, 2007
Terps score season high in beating Bears
After close wins against supposed cupcakes Hampton and Northeastern earlier in the season, Maryland should have learned that no win was a guaranteed blowout. Last night's opponent, Morgan State, was perhaps better than either of those two teams, having lost close games to UConn and Miami by just four points apiece.
The Terrapins turned in their most efficient offensive output of the season, scoring a season-high 89 points while hitting 9 of 15 three pointers and cutting the turnovers down to a more managable 23% of possessions. The scoring load was balanced and led by Eric Hayes. Hayes returned to the point guard position after playing shooting guard for the team's first eight games and responded with a 19 point performance including 5 three point shots. Boom Osby contributed 16 points and 9 boards off the bench, including nine consecutive points during one stretch in the second half that stretched the lead from 11 to 18. James Gist scored 18 points and went over 1,000 for his career while Greivis Vasquez had 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 11 assists plus 7 more turnovers.
The biggest negative from this game was the continued inability of the Terps to come close to holding their own on the defensive boards, allowing Morgan State to get back about 36% of their missed shots in the form of offensive rebounds. No doubt that part of that is downside of an interior defense that relies more on blocking shots (10 last night) than playing position defense. Even so, the frustration of seeing a Terp get a hand on the ball only to have it squirt away from the opposition could drive a fan insane. The team has actually improved from last year, even with the loss of Ekene Ibekwe, so that incremental improvement might have to suffice for this year.
The Terrapins turned in their most efficient offensive output of the season, scoring a season-high 89 points while hitting 9 of 15 three pointers and cutting the turnovers down to a more managable 23% of possessions. The scoring load was balanced and led by Eric Hayes. Hayes returned to the point guard position after playing shooting guard for the team's first eight games and responded with a 19 point performance including 5 three point shots. Boom Osby contributed 16 points and 9 boards off the bench, including nine consecutive points during one stretch in the second half that stretched the lead from 11 to 18. James Gist scored 18 points and went over 1,000 for his career while Greivis Vasquez had 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 11 assists plus 7 more turnovers.
The biggest negative from this game was the continued inability of the Terps to come close to holding their own on the defensive boards, allowing Morgan State to get back about 36% of their missed shots in the form of offensive rebounds. No doubt that part of that is downside of an interior defense that relies more on blocking shots (10 last night) than playing position defense. Even so, the frustration of seeing a Terp get a hand on the ball only to have it squirt away from the opposition could drive a fan insane. The team has actually improved from last year, even with the loss of Ekene Ibekwe, so that incremental improvement might have to suffice for this year.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
ACC Week 3
Miami (7-0): beat Alabama State and Saint John's. The Hurricanes continued their surprising undefeated streaks by nipping Alabama State and crushing Saint John's with Jack McClinton returning to the lineup after missing two games. There are no givens, but Miami has a good chance to enter the New Year at 12-1. Talk about unexpected. McClinton is the star, but keep an eye on redshirt senior Anthony King in the frontcourt. King has been very effective on the offensive end while continuing to be a dominating rebounding presence on both ends.
Duke (8-0): beat Wisconsin and Davidson. The Dukies kept on rolling, first thrashing the Badgers at Cameron before beating the fighting Stephen Curry's by six. Duke's adjusted efficiency numbers rank in the top ten on both ends of the floor. Their four component offensive and defensive numbers all rank in the top 100 in the country. After a down year it sure looks like Duke will be back to running some good teams out of the gym this season.
North Carolina (7-0): beat Ohio State and Kentucky. Two road wins over top-tier programs in the same week is always great, even if those two programs are experiencing what might be a down year. The offense keeps humming but the loss of Branden Wright and Reyshawn Terry has put the Tar Heel defense at its worst levels of the Roy Williams Era.
Clemson (7-0): beat Purdue and South Carolina. Even without James Mays the Tigers showed they could beat some major conference opposition this week. Trevor Booker has stepped up on the inside. He currently ranks 14th in the nation in DR% and 35th in BLK%.
Virginia (6-1): beat Northwestern. Who would believe that Virginia, a team dominated by backcourt scorers, actually ranks in the top six in the country in rebounding on both ends of the floor. Of the Cavaliers five most used players, none stands taller than 6-7 so it might be too much to expect these lofty numbers to continue. Even with the great defensive rebounding the Cavs' defense is borderline horrible.
North Carolina State (4-2): lost to Michigan State. The 'Pack was blown out in the ACC-Big Ten challenge against the Spartans. JJ Hickson continued his torrid freshman season, scoring 21 points, but starters Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells failed to score in a combined 44 minutes. McCauley has been particularly bad offensively as his eFG% has fallen from 58.7 to 37.0 while seeing his involvement in the offense vanish.
Florida State (8-2): beat Minnesota, Stetson, Samford. Was Al Thornton a defensive liability? We all know how great he was on the offensive end, but Florida State's defense improved from a mediocre unit (55th) to a very strong one this season (13th) with the same unit less Thornton. Of course that's far too simplistic as Thornton racked up blocks, steals and defensive rebounds. Even on a team where the four players with the most minutes are 6-3 or shorter, Florida State has clamped down on its opponents' shooting. Watch for that in conference play.
Boston College (5-1): beat Michigan, lost to Providence. Boston College would have a nice defense if it were 1980 and three pointers didn't exist. But they do, and the Eagles have been torched from long range to the tune of 36.8% on the season including 12-23 in their first loss of the season to Providence. Boston College has some guards that can fill it, but they need more defense.
Georgia Tech (3-4): lost to Indiana and Vanderbilt. The Jackets blew a late lead on the road against Indiana before being throttled by Vandy. The defense has been atrocious, giving up 1.09 points per possession and ranking outside the top 200 in nearly every meaningful category.
Virginia Tech (3-3): beat North Carolina-Ashville, lost to Penn State. It's a growing year with four freshmen in the top six. Jeff Allen has been a force and Hank Thorns and Malcolm Delaney have both shown some signs in the backcourt. It seems to be a recurring theme, but once again, the defense is not good on this team right now. The offense is not much better for a team that never takes a trip to the line.
Wake Forest (5-1): beat Iowa, South Carolina-Upstate, lost to Charlotte. The Deacs' offense was disastrous in the win over Iowa and the loss to Charlotte, piling up just 119 points in 145 possessions over the two games. If they couldn't rebound on the offensive glass as well as they do, it would be an even longer season.
Duke (8-0): beat Wisconsin and Davidson. The Dukies kept on rolling, first thrashing the Badgers at Cameron before beating the fighting Stephen Curry's by six. Duke's adjusted efficiency numbers rank in the top ten on both ends of the floor. Their four component offensive and defensive numbers all rank in the top 100 in the country. After a down year it sure looks like Duke will be back to running some good teams out of the gym this season.
North Carolina (7-0): beat Ohio State and Kentucky. Two road wins over top-tier programs in the same week is always great, even if those two programs are experiencing what might be a down year. The offense keeps humming but the loss of Branden Wright and Reyshawn Terry has put the Tar Heel defense at its worst levels of the Roy Williams Era.
Clemson (7-0): beat Purdue and South Carolina. Even without James Mays the Tigers showed they could beat some major conference opposition this week. Trevor Booker has stepped up on the inside. He currently ranks 14th in the nation in DR% and 35th in BLK%.
Virginia (6-1): beat Northwestern. Who would believe that Virginia, a team dominated by backcourt scorers, actually ranks in the top six in the country in rebounding on both ends of the floor. Of the Cavaliers five most used players, none stands taller than 6-7 so it might be too much to expect these lofty numbers to continue. Even with the great defensive rebounding the Cavs' defense is borderline horrible.
North Carolina State (4-2): lost to Michigan State. The 'Pack was blown out in the ACC-Big Ten challenge against the Spartans. JJ Hickson continued his torrid freshman season, scoring 21 points, but starters Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells failed to score in a combined 44 minutes. McCauley has been particularly bad offensively as his eFG% has fallen from 58.7 to 37.0 while seeing his involvement in the offense vanish.
Florida State (8-2): beat Minnesota, Stetson, Samford. Was Al Thornton a defensive liability? We all know how great he was on the offensive end, but Florida State's defense improved from a mediocre unit (55th) to a very strong one this season (13th) with the same unit less Thornton. Of course that's far too simplistic as Thornton racked up blocks, steals and defensive rebounds. Even on a team where the four players with the most minutes are 6-3 or shorter, Florida State has clamped down on its opponents' shooting. Watch for that in conference play.
Boston College (5-1): beat Michigan, lost to Providence. Boston College would have a nice defense if it were 1980 and three pointers didn't exist. But they do, and the Eagles have been torched from long range to the tune of 36.8% on the season including 12-23 in their first loss of the season to Providence. Boston College has some guards that can fill it, but they need more defense.
Georgia Tech (3-4): lost to Indiana and Vanderbilt. The Jackets blew a late lead on the road against Indiana before being throttled by Vandy. The defense has been atrocious, giving up 1.09 points per possession and ranking outside the top 200 in nearly every meaningful category.
Virginia Tech (3-3): beat North Carolina-Ashville, lost to Penn State. It's a growing year with four freshmen in the top six. Jeff Allen has been a force and Hank Thorns and Malcolm Delaney have both shown some signs in the backcourt. It seems to be a recurring theme, but once again, the defense is not good on this team right now. The offense is not much better for a team that never takes a trip to the line.
Wake Forest (5-1): beat Iowa, South Carolina-Upstate, lost to Charlotte. The Deacs' offense was disastrous in the win over Iowa and the loss to Charlotte, piling up just 119 points in 145 possessions over the two games. If they couldn't rebound on the offensive glass as well as they do, it would be an even longer season.
Maryland goes down in BB&T again
It's an annual rite of passage for Maryland basketball these days. Every season in early December the team travels to D.C. to play in the BB&T Classic, and every season they come away with a disappointing result. After losses to George Washington and Notre Dame in the past two seasons, the Verizon Center was once again unkind. This time the result was a loss to Virginia Commonwealth to fall to 2-7 in the event over the past five years.
Maryland played what was - by far - its worse defensive game of the season, allowing better than 1.11 points per possession. The Terrapin backcourt was torched in both halves by their VCU counterparts, first by Jamal Shuler and then by '07 NCAA Tournament hero Eric Maynor. Maryland went to its little used zone defense which the Rams effectively busted with threes, shooting 6 of 10 in the first half. After switching back to the man-to-man, Maynor - who didn't have a field goal in the first half - put 23 points on the board to help VCU pull away from a tie game at halftime.
Greivis Vasquez and James Gist once again had a subpar game, combining to shoot 7-24 from the field with 8 turnovers. Boom Osby was the star of the game for the losing team, scoring 17 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. Cliff Tucker continued to put together a case for more playing time, scoring 14 points to go with 7 rebounds and 2 assists in just 14 minutes.
The team's next opponent will be a local one, as Morgan State comes to the Comcast Center for the first time ever. The two teams last played in 1994 with the Joe Smith-led Terrapins rolling to a 138-80 win in Cole Field House.
Maryland played what was - by far - its worse defensive game of the season, allowing better than 1.11 points per possession. The Terrapin backcourt was torched in both halves by their VCU counterparts, first by Jamal Shuler and then by '07 NCAA Tournament hero Eric Maynor. Maryland went to its little used zone defense which the Rams effectively busted with threes, shooting 6 of 10 in the first half. After switching back to the man-to-man, Maynor - who didn't have a field goal in the first half - put 23 points on the board to help VCU pull away from a tie game at halftime.
Greivis Vasquez and James Gist once again had a subpar game, combining to shoot 7-24 from the field with 8 turnovers. Boom Osby was the star of the game for the losing team, scoring 17 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. Cliff Tucker continued to put together a case for more playing time, scoring 14 points to go with 7 rebounds and 2 assists in just 14 minutes.
The team's next opponent will be a local one, as Morgan State comes to the Comcast Center for the first time ever. The two teams last played in 1994 with the Joe Smith-led Terrapins rolling to a 138-80 win in Cole Field House.
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