Monday, December 10, 2007

Play some D!

Ah, defense, the much overlooked factor in college basketball. Even though defense is essentially half of the game, the analysis of it is typically superficial. Uptempo teams that give up a lot of points tend to be the ones labeled as bad defenders even if their defense is very efficient on a per-possession basis. Meanwhile any team that plays at a snail's pace is lauded for their defensive effort.

Defense on the team level at least has some numbers to flesh out the truth from the fiction. On the individual level, blocks and steals suffice. Unless a player has a reputation as a great lockdown defender, his other contributions rarely go noticed. And defensive rebounding is never brought up as part of the defensive equation outside the domain of tempo-free stats.

So what's the point of this soliloquy? To take the opportunity to look at some teams expected to be contenders whose defense has not been up to snuff so far. Of course it's still early, but with 1/3 of the schedule done (or close to it), it's not too early to take a peak at the numbers.

Syracuse - adj. DEff ranking: 149
issues: turnover percentage, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA

Jim Boeheim cried crocodile tears for months after his team was relegated to the NIT last season, but with the incoming 2007 recruiting class, led by Donte Greene and Johnny Flynn, most expected that to be a short departure from playing in the meaningful tournament. Perhaps that was premature. The team forces no turnovers, although that should not be a surprise in the (in)famous Syracuse 2-3 Zone Defense. The way to beat a zone is to hit shots from the outside. The Orange's opponents always launch from deep, but it's not that often that they shoot 39% from the perimeter. That number will likely go down, but having already been torched by Massachusetts (1.32 points per possession) and Rhode Island (1.15) of the A-10, things could get ugly in Big East play.

Vanderbilt - adj. DEff ranking: 123
issues: 3pt FG%, turnover percentage, defensive rebounding.

Freshman Andrew Ogilvy has been outstanding in leading the Commodores to a 9-0 start, but the defense will have to improve for that to continue into SEC play. Vandy actually has a big team - or at least one of above average size - but they've continued their poor defensive rebounding present for most of the Kevin Stallings Era. Teams continue to bomb threes over the Vandy defense. That stings, but it would sting even more if they didn't hit 43.9% of their own shots from long range.

Oregon - adj. DEff ranking: 93
issues: turnover percentage, 2pt FG%

Another team that can't force a turnover. 5-6 Tajuan Porter plays the second most minutes of any Duck but rarely records a steal. A short player is supposed to be quick and pesky; if Porter doesn't force any turnovers, you have to wonder how much he contributes on defense. Despite giving major minutes to just one player over 6-6, Marty Leunen, the Ducks actually block some shots, mainly thanks to Malik Hairston and Bryce Taylor. The other two pointers are the problem. Oregon can't seem to stop the ones it doesn't get a hand on before it hits the rim.

Texas - adj. DEff ranking: 84
issues: defensive rebounding, 3pt FG%, 3PA/FGA

Texas has the most efficient offense in the country, both in the adjusted and unadjusted rankings, an impressive feat after losing Kevin Durant. But once again they play minimal defense, an unnoticed quality which prevented them from becoming more than a good team in Durant's only season in Austin. Damion James was a good defensive rebounder last season, and this year he has stepped up to fully replace the mamoth presence that Kevin Durant had on the defensive glass last season. Unfortunately no one has replaced his contributions. That tends to happen when you start players that check in at 5-10, 5-11, and 6-2. All three of those players (AJ Abrams, DJ Augustin and Justin Mason) can garner a steal, but they've been helpless in preventing the opposition from raining threes down on the Longhorns.

Take note of these teams. They'll all likely be sold as potential contenders for something of worth, maybe their conferences, maybe the Final Four. But unless they improve their defense, they'll have a tough time fulfilling the prognosticators predictions.

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